Ten years ago, Commerce Reloaded was born, an event created by the Echangeur BNP Paribas Personal Finance to examine the changes in the world of commerce and better understand the major trends that structure it. The drafting of this report requires us to follow the weak signals and the decisive points of rupture in contact with the actors of digital innovation and commerce.
Since its first Commerce Reloaded, the Echangeur has never stopped anticipating and following the mutation of the world of commerce! At the beginning of 2010, this world organized around a frontal relationship between brands and individuals, is now a thing of the past. Driven by the connectivity (Internet of Things, smartphones, voice assistants…) of all interactions, it is turning into an economy for the perfect management of our more or less conscious aspirations and needs. This is the “Ambient Commerce“!
It’s time to take stock of these 10 years of Mutation(S)!
Stem cell
Commerce Reloaded’s analysis is enriched by coverage of key trade shows such as the Web Summit in Lisbon, the Consumer Electronic Show (#CES2021) in Las Vegas and Shanghai, the Retail’s big Show(#NRF2021) in New York, and the South by Southwest Festival conferences in Austin.
In 2010, Uber set out to conquer the world. The first manifestations of Uberization would turn our relationship to commerce upside down. Today, the health crisis is accelerating this digital and structural mutation, against a backdrop of sustainable and responsible consumption.
Incubation
The easy life. A world in a click. A meeting in a swipe at the moment T was on the way. Symbolized by Google Now, Ebay Now, Tinder … everything was implemented to simplify our lives as customers and citizens.
In June 2012, the launch of Google Now and Google field whose baseline was “the information you need when you need it”, was the launch of the era of the hyper-personalized contextual!
Interactions generated new forms of dialogue, requirements and ultimately value creation on a daily basis.
Fluidize, automate the act of purchase, and being delivered in an hour became the first markers of an Ambient Commerce totally dedicated to improving the customer journey.
Google CEO Eric Schmidt’s chilling sentence in the Wall Street Journal in 2010 became tangible and irrevocable:
“The reality is, I don’t think people want Google to answer their questions. They want Google to tell them what to do!
Diffusion
In 2014, the takeover of Nest by Google or the launch of Amazon Echo for Prime members, initialized the spread of the algorithmic “virus”, capitalizing on our slightest daily manifestations, bringing about the emergence of an economy backed by the uninterrupted flows of life or an industry of life. These ecosystems crystallized by Amazon, Alibaba, Google … supported by connected objects have had no difficulty in investing our daily lives.
This vision of all “ambient service” comes neither from the USA nor from China but from Japan. The Telecom giant, NTT Docomo in 2011 announced in its “Heart vision” plan its desire to become the “Personal Life Agent 2011-2020” of millions of Japanese. The improved version of its Iconcier app (pioneer of ‘Super APP’) launched in December 2009, long before the Chinese super-app WeChat reached one billion monthly active users.
In 2021, the Echangeur is convinced that the most successful ecosystem in the world is still in Japan but under the leadership of Rakuten. Or a real service empire, operating in more than 70 different professions including finance, health, distribution or telecoms!
Acceleration
Covid-19 has precipitated the digital transformation of our daily lives. For Satya Nadella CEO of Microsoft, we have experienced a digital acceleration of 2 years in just 2 months. For McKinsey E-commerce has gained ten years in just eight months in 2020. According to the GDR firm, British E-commerce could even represent 50% of global commerce by 2025, leading to the closure of 25% of physical stores . Physical stores that change roles and some of which are turning into mini logistics hubs with the phenomenon of “dark stores”.
In the area of payment according to Mastercard, 54% of its users favored contactless payments. At Visa, 78% of its credit and debit card users have changed their payment habits with the pandemic.
This frantic digitization is spreading and it is all the dimensions of our lives that have been forced to transform affecting the last bastions such as Education, Health, Work …
Telemedicine in Europe has grown from 40% in France, 65% in the United States to 70% in the United Kingdom. The penetration of video streaming with Netflix or Disney + has been accelerated by seven years in just five months, according to McKinsey and shared by the Consumer Technology Association (CTA) during the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2021. The same study shows that 70% of Europeans want to continue using digital technology as much or even more after the health crisis.
This acceleration of digitization seems irreversible.
Immunity
Inspired by the functions of living organisms, technological innovation using DNA through synthetic biology is positioned as the salvation for humanity, just like Messenger RNA. This biomimicry is gradually becoming part of our daily life and in the approach of a future business centered on deeptechs and the circular economy, among others.
For the first, the science of the infinitely small, the field of possibilities is vast, like the latest technological advances such as stem cell fusion and gene therapies that could allow humans to live better and longer. For example, nutrigenomics, which already makes it possible to personalize food as well as to individualize nutritional treatment plans for individuals according to their genetic profile, is already underway.
If only 19% of Europeans (according to a Euromonitor study), say today they are willing to give their genetic profile to have more personalized offers, this proportion already reaches 75% in the United States.
Finally, the circular economy must be at the heart of today’s and tomorrow’s economic models. According to analyses by the Ellen McArthur Foundation, by adopting these principles, Europe could achieve a net profit of one thousand eight hundred billion euros by 2030, which is nine hundred billion euros more than the traditional linear economic model.
The circular economy is not a utopia but a market of the future.
Mutation(S)
During periods of confinement our virtual and computational double had the opportunity to cross Animal Crossing in Gucci or attend a giant concert on Fornite, leaving behind a denervated real world. Between Binge-watching and the management of its virtual identity, many are those who have shifted fluidly in the Metaverses. Thus creating a mutant economy where the new markers are called NFT, Loot box, Skin …
Gaming with 500 million additional players and a market of over $ 300 billion in 2021. It now weighs more than the cinema and music markets combined, according to a study by Accenture.
Still according to the same firm, forecasts indicate an increase of an additional 400 million gamers by the end of 2023, thus forecasting to reach 3.1 billion players worldwide.
Welcome to the new world!
Club Echangeur
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